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table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"1KG=0O B01;8F0"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";} </style> <![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <o:shapedefaults v:ext="edit" spidmax="3074"/> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <o:shapelayout v:ext="edit"> <o:idmap v:ext="edit" data="1"/> </o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--> </head> <body bgcolor=white lang=RU link=blue vlink=purple style='tab-interval:35.4pt'> <div class=Section1> <div> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>Hello, Gerald,Swamiji and Group<br> <br> I recommend to follow these steps:<br> <br> 1) Rough estimation, watch these digits:<br> <br> <span style='mso-no-proof:yes'><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shapetype 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src="290514.files/image006.jpg" alt=dajchfcf.png v:shapes=" 8AC=>:_x0020_4"><![endif]></span><br> <br> <br> Ok, it shows Down 64 downs versus 55 ups<br> <br> 2) Control group: why it goes down? It goes down because this astro phenomena or because price goes down for some other reason i.e. down trend?<br> <br> Watch these digits:<br> <br> <span style='mso-no-proof:yes'><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape id=" 8AC=>:_x0020_5" o:spid="_x0000_i1027" type="#_x0000_t75" alt="ehhgicga.png" style='width:268.2pt; height:148.2pt;visibility:visible;mso-wrap-style:square'> <v:imagedata src="290514.files/image007.png" o:title="ehhgicga"/> </v:shape><![endif]--><![if !vml]><img width=358 height=198 src="290514.files/image008.jpg" alt=ehhgicga.png v:shapes=" 8AC=>:_x0020_5"><![endif]></span><br> <br> I will show you example: I've downloaded SP500 since end of 2011. Stock market is in up trend mode since that moment.&nbsp; Now we will calculate the Moon effect, i.e. New Moon,Full Moon, Moon square Sun. Here are efficiency tests for these phenomena:<br> <br> <span style='mso-no-proof:yes'><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape id=" 8AC=>:_x0020_6" o:spid="_x0000_i1026" type="#_x0000_t75" alt="gdchbabd.png" style='width:456pt; height:387.6pt;visibility:visible;mso-wrap-style:square'> <v:imagedata src="290514.files/image009.png" o:title="gdchbabd"/> </v:shape><![endif]--><![if !vml]><img width=608 height=517 src="290514.files/image010.jpg" alt=gdchbabd.png v:shapes=" 8AC=>:_x0020_6"><![endif]></span><br> <br> <br> You see, all models show UP. But look at this: Control groups show the same - Up. When real up/down values close to Control group values it means that the analyzed event is not important. The difference between real up/down and control group should be big enough otherwise these results should be classified as ARTIFACT (price goes up not because aspect but because uptrend).&nbsp; <br> <br> To evaluate this difference we have to apply chi square significance criteria:&nbsp; <a href="http://www.timingsolution.com/TS/Study/Stat/index.htm"><u>http://www.timingsolution.com/TS/Study/Stat/index.htm</u></a><br> <br> <br> 3) There is a big problem with all financial data:&nbsp; we should be always ready that stock market will change his Game rules. So I recommend always to check how the analyzed phenomena works based on recent price history, let's say 10-20 latest cases. I mean this parameter:<br> <br> <span style='mso-no-proof:yes'><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape id=" 8AC=>:_x0020_7" o:spid="_x0000_i1025" type="#_x0000_t75" alt="giccbifa.png" style='width:204pt; height:133.2pt;visibility:visible;mso-wrap-style:square'> <v:imagedata src="290514.files/image011.png" o:title="giccbifa"/> </v:shape><![endif]--><![if !vml]><img border=0 width=272 height=178 src="290514.files/image012.jpg" alt=giccbifa.png v:shapes=" 8AC=>:_x0020_7"><![endif]></span><br> <br> Use last %X trades as confirmation criteria, just to be sure that the analyzed phenomena is still working and stock market has not changed his rules. You can ignore the big % based on last %X trades. <br> <br> Best regards.<br> Sergey.<br> &nbsp;<o:p></o:p></span></p> </div> <p class=MsoNormal><span style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> </div> </body> </html>