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mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";} </style> <![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <o:shapedefaults v:ext="edit" spidmax="2050"/> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <o:shapelayout v:ext="edit"> <o:idmap v:ext="edit" data="1"/> </o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--> </head> <body bgcolor=white lang=RU style='tab-interval:35.4pt'> <div class=Section1> <p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>Hello, Group<br> <br> Regarding today upgrade for Terra. Backtesting shows that Moon based models tend to generate INVERTED projection lines. This is true for S&amp;P500 at least.<br> <br> Let's look together at Moon model for SNP:<br> <br> </span><span style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-no-proof: yes'><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shapetype id="_x0000_t75" coordsize="21600,21600" o:spt="75" o:preferrelative="t" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" filled="f" stroked="f"> <v:stroke joinstyle="miter"/> <v:formulas> <v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"/> <v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"/> <v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"/> <v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"/> <v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"/> <v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"/> <v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"/> <v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"/> <v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"/> <v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"/> <v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"/> <v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"/> </v:formulas> <v:path o:extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"/> <o:lock v:ext="edit" aspectratio="t"/> </v:shapetype><v:shape id=" 8AC=>:_x0020_2" o:spid="_x0000_i1026" type="#_x0000_t75" alt="bgdgaijh.png" style='width:603pt;height:255pt;visibility:visible; mso-wrap-style:square'> <v:imagedata src="140514.files/image001.png" o:title="bgdgaijh"/> </v:shape><![endif]--><![if !vml]><img width=804 height=340 src="140514.files/image002.jpg" alt=bgdgaijh.png v:shapes=" 8AC=>:_x0020_2"><![endif]></span><span lang=EN-US style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language: EN-US'><br> <br> You see the last model (worst model) shows:<br> average&nbsp; correlation = - 9.3% (minus i.e. correlation is negative i.e. projection line is inverted)<br> 33 positive correlations versus 59 negative&nbsp; 35.9% i.e. 35.9% cases the projection line was good, 64.1% not good.<br> <br> If we invert this projection line we will get this<br> <br> average&nbsp; correlation =9.3%<br> 59 positive correlations versus 33 negative&nbsp; 64.1%.<br> <br> So I recommend to play with inverted (last, worst) models but use them in inverted mode, use this parameter to set inverted mode:<br> <br> </span><span style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-no-proof: yes'><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape id=" 8AC=>:_x0020_3" o:spid="_x0000_i1025" type="#_x0000_t75" alt="ibgabjah.png" style='width:378.6pt;height:121.8pt; visibility:visible;mso-wrap-style:square'> <v:imagedata src="140514.files/image003.png" o:title="ibgabjah"/> </v:shape><![endif]--><![if !vml]><img width=505 height=162 src="140514.files/image004.jpg" alt=ibgabjah.png v:shapes=" 8AC=>:_x0020_3"><![endif]></span><span lang=EN-US style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language: EN-US'><br> <br> I personally do not like inverted models and always try to avoid them. But formal backtesting shows that they work. For SNP it works better than best normal (non inverted) projection line.<br> </span><span style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>We will see...<br> <br> Best regards.<br> Sergey.<o:p></o:p></span></p> </div> </body> </html>